I am seeing auctions not meeting reserve bids. Plus, I am seeing quality names hitting the market and not getting bought up. My two cents is yes, the market
has topped out as it is cyclical in nature.
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Have collectible cane prices topped out?
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 martketwatcher |
Have collectible cane prices topped out? |
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Posts: 2 08/04/2008 17:56 |
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Boo |
Topped out.... | #1 | ||
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Posts: 1306 08/04/2008 18:30 |
Yes, my market is topped out. But, if I can get my hands on one more cane rod...I'm watching out for it now. Then, I'll be complete and my market
done! No more buying!
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rodzilla |
#2 | |||
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Posts: 108 08/04/2008 19:57 |
It's seasonal. As sure as the leaves turn in the fall, the prices drop in mid summer.
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firehole |
#3 | |||
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Posts: 3432 08/04/2008 20:04 Local user |
Rodzilla is correct. The prices rise from fall thru spring. Summer is the best time buy to get the best bargain.
Dennis |
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AKSalmo57 |
#4 | |||
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Posts: 37 08/04/2008 20:06 |
Everybody's out field testing the rods that they bought this past Winter.
Rick |
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Hipgnosis |
Topped out.... | #5 | ||
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Posts: 480 08/04/2008 20:56 |
When Hoagy Carmichael and Bob Summers have rods that don't meet minimum... the market has (for now anyway) topped out.
The economy is soft, life is expensive, and folks are watching their money more carefully. I know some of you are unaffected by all of this but some folks who were buyers a year ago, now are not. Most of us have too many rods as it is and there isn't a need for another in a shaky economy. Sure, there are always buyers but I don't think they're paying what they were 6 - 12 months ago. One other thing that I've been thinking about... how many next generation cane buyers are coming along or is that generation quite satisfied with their plastic rods and see no need to buy into the history, craftsmanship, and the organic feel of bamboo? In some respects I feel like bamboo rods are somewhat like a Buick - the customers are dying out.
HIPGNOSIS
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martketwatcher |
#6 | |||
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Posts: 3 08/04/2008 21:13 |
I am starting to believe that paying a 50% premium for a Summers rod in the secondary market to avoid the long wait, or to just be sure to have one, is a risky
venture.
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 creakycane |
#7 | |||
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Posts: 1753 08/04/2008 21:55 |
Frankly, I don't think the economy has as much effect as the summer slow season. I predict come Nov/Dec, things will get hot again.
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gofish60 |
#8 | |||
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Posts: 1768 08/05/2008 09:47 Registered User |
It may be a bit more pronounced this summer, but, as has been stated here, sales normally flatten out during the fishing season and pick up in the fall. Also,
it has been noted that the rods that sell this time of year tend more to be no-kidding fishing rods, and the pricy delicate collectibles sales pick up during
the cold time of the year (I'm speaking, of course, for those of us who live where it gets cold and we can't fish in the winter because the flies
bounce off the ice.)
Summer has always seemed to have been a good time to buy, especially on ebay. gofish |
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pcg |
#9 | |||
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Posts: 1653 08/05/2008 13:00 Admin |
Good rods always sell for high prices, run of the mill examples go soft when the economy softens. Top end & rare rods are (& always will be) desirable.
I'll be very surprised if the current financials have much impact on serious collecting.
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tedgolden |
#10 | |||
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Posts: 2572 08/05/2008 13:36 Moderator |
I think most sellers are amatuers who take a stab at a price or use the price they paid as a selling price. Even for professional dealers, I would venture it's a crap shoot unless the rod is so common there is an established price. It's an imperfect market with even greater imperfect market knowledge. Thus it is difficult to make rational assumptions about price trends. I think we are all guessing. Prices tend to be sticky on the downside. Everyone is reluctant to take a loss. Even if the market price requires it for a transaction. So rather than
endure the pain, we sit on the rod, wait until next year, etc. Denial is our friend. Unless one is selling commodities, or more recently real estate.
In the short term, the slowdown of the economy isn't helping. The spike in transportation costs is hurting. It now costs me $50 to even see water
where a trout lives. This has my attention. And recent repricing of real estate and stock market malaise strongly suggest I am somewhat less well off than I
was a year ago. This has my attention.
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steeldog94 |
#11 | |||
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Posts: 67 08/06/2008 07:20 |
I agree the prices are really soft right now, even for mid summer. Bad time to sell but a great time to buy. Shame is I'm done buying unless anyone has
an 11ft Orvis Salmon Rod they want to sell.
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martketwatcher |
#12 | |||
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Posts: 5 08/06/2008 20:48 |
many cycle peaks can be identified, mostly in hindsight, by a seminal moment. I remember the impressionist art auctions of the early 1990's when a Van Gogh
"Irises" sold for around $80 million. It was the highest price paid for an impressionist piece to that date. The market dipped sharply shortly
afterward.
Lang's auctioned a Pinky Gillium for just over $18K two years ago. I think the Wall Street Journal did a story last year about the collectibility of fishing gear. I believe the US is headed for a continued economic contraction with continued layoffs. Even the marginally well-to-do are going to feel a bit of pressure as the stock market dips to SPX 800 in the coming months. I am noticing plenty of reserve not met notices on the net. |
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pcg |
#13 | |||
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Posts: 1658 08/06/2008 20:55 Admin |
It's easy to be a prognosticator. But rare rods remain rare and scarce rods, through fire loss, breakage & carelessness, become more scarce. Prices may
slow, but it'll be temporary. As stock advisers say too often, Buy on dips.
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martketwatcher |
#14 | |||
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Posts: 6 08/06/2008 21:24 |
I am also noticing something else on this site: a seller not offering one rod or reel but seemingly a whole collection. It doesn't take much, a large
hospital bill, wife's layoff, deleted bonus and all of a sudden the cane looks like an expendable luxury. I personally am still buying what I feel are mid
priced rods from John Pickard, to fish, not collect. When I receive my new 867, I will have three Pickards. He makes nice rods.
When I talk with John Pickard, I quiz him on his cane business as I am always looking for any anecdotal evidence of continued economic weakness. He says business is still good. It was very interesting however, that he mentioned business coming from Europe. That would make sense as both the British pound and Euro have crushed the US dollar. |
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bluno |
#15 | |||
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Posts: 134 08/07/2008 03:20 |
martketwatcher wrote: The increased export due to the weak dollar is good for the fly fishing industry, because it helps to keep the small shops, rodbuilders and even companies
such as Sage and Abel in business and helps to conserve these jobs which will be otherwise lost. The Fly fishing industry is one of the few true American
industries, which is comparable to Swiss watch making which has similarities in tradition and quality: The tradition of flyfshing is founded in the US and most
the high quality gear is still produced there.
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oddsnrods |
#16 | |||
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Posts: 143 08/07/2008 14:57 |
I seem to remember that there was also a long standing British contribution to the tradition, especially since Victorian times, both with salmon and trout...
Interesting to read that US makers are getting work from Europe (I have sent one or two). Also interesting to note that there are but a handful of full time
rod-makers now in the UK, the only fly rods that seems to find much of a market there are those made for small scale stream work. As a result E.Barder (for
one) has his sights set on the US market - and his rods seem to go for about $3,000.
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Armchair Angler |
#17 | |||
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Posts: 90 08/07/2008 22:15 |
I'm not a serious collector and judging from some of the current Payne prices, I doubt that prices have topped out. However, back in the Spring I had been
talking with a maker about ordering a 2nd rod from him. (one of the higher ticket rods). I had been watching this mortgage mess unfold over the past 6 months,
but not really taking it too seriously. Then, in the midst of my talks w/ the maker, the Bear Stearns buyout took place (over a weekend) and suddenly there
was talk of other lenders going down and a take over of Merrill Lynch and all kinds of other ugly stuff. I called the maker back and told him I'd be more
comfortable waiting a couple months to see how this played out. Back in June I saw no improvement (and still don't) so I told him I wouldn't be
placing the order. Again, I'm not a serious collector, but I'm one less buyer that a serious collector has to outbid (or race to the phone). So,
perhaps the economy will have an effect. I'm sure I'm not the only one who is pulling back a bit. Even though I'm not in a position that I would
have to sell my tackle if I lost my job, as Drew said, the current state of affairs - has my attention. On the other hand, I have a rod coming in the Fall
so, to some degree, I guess I'm still in the game.
Bob |
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winston59 |
Low Prices | #18 | ||
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Posts: 23 08/09/2008 22:58 |
I don't have the money to buy high price rods, but I will pick up a nice low price production rod from time to time.
Just picked up a Minty Montague Redwing 8.5 3/2 for 204.00. Six months ago they were going for 350.00. |
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HERMES2069 |
Rare and Scarce | #19 | ||
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Posts: 397 08/10/2008 08:25 |
IMHO
The rare and scarce rod only grow in value. I have discretionary funds for rod that are mint and scarce. Phil |
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aquabonito |
#20 | |||
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Posts: 871 08/10/2008 16:52 Angry Andy |
Amen Drew; I won't buy another until the Fall. To bear out the slowdown, I've been trying to sell an unused 9' Montague Redwing on eBay. Re-listed
it and can't get a fair bid despite having 30 lookers and a half dozen bidders on each occasion. I'll try it again in October. It deserves a premium so
I'll just wait it out.
My nearest trout is 70 plus miles away. Even with my econ box (a 2001 30 MPG Mazda) its a 6 gallon round trip. Between fuel cost and hot dogs at Ernie's Hot Lunch in Gettysburg and a few apres-angling beers its a 50 buck day. Such costs have to effect the market. I've virtually parked my Suburban. 
"You can't make new old friends"
 Andy
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