For the interim, it is hard to escape the conclusion that the value of bamboo rods, which for most of us are discretionary purchases, have peaked and are in
decline. Yes, some rods may sell for higher prices than they did a year ago, but, absent the recent financial problems, they would have probably sold for even
higher prices. Until we (homeowners, workers, consumers, board members) reach a consensus that housing and stock prices have bottomed, the value of other
things, such as bamboo rods, will probably not recover either. Some of us, however, who have held major short positions on stocks and housing-related assets
over the last six months could end up driving up cane prices, and if several of us happen to covet the same rod, we would create an exception to the general
downturn in prices. The probability of such an occurrence is low -- but not zero.
This forum began as Clark's Classic Bamboo Rod Forum, founded by Clark Davis for all who share a passion for classic rods. The forum is now owned by Whitefish Press aka Dr. Todd Larson - banjo.
For those who don't use English as their primary language we now have a translator for your language of choice hosted by Google.
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Have collectible cane prices topped out?
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 RPL |
#41 | |||
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Posts: 70 11/13/2008 13:43 |
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notenoughhours |
#42 | |||
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Posts: 69 11/13/2008 16:19 |
I have not considered my cane purchases as "discretionary" for quite some time now. The disease has progressed to the point where, if the economy
gets any worse, I may be forced to choose between cane and other manditory expenditures like cigars, single malt scotch and wine. Where's my bailout?
Last Edited By: notenoughhours 11/14/2008 13:01.
Edited 2 times.
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RPL |
Declining Cane | #43 | ||
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Posts: 71 11/13/2008 17:21 |
I feel your pain. Fortunately, prices for all your necessities are in decline, and you should get great mileage from the increased purchasing power of your
future stimulus/bailout check. If your income is too high to qualify for stimulation, you will be that much better off.
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Chartist1 |
#44 | |||
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Posts: 153 11/14/2008 12:46 |
The give up phase to the capital markets is dead ahead, within four weeks. The S&P is trying to hold the trough between the 2000 and 2007 peaks....This is
NOT going to hold....And when it gives, we'll see a down 12%+ day in the markets. I have been using the Hang Seng meltdown from 2000 as a template....At
least in terms of time, it's been dead on.......Then I believe we'll trade sideways between 600 and 800 in the S&P for 2+ years....
cash is king..... |
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tim simbari |
#45 | |||
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Posts: 269 11/14/2008 19:35 |
Chartist1 wrote: Perhaps the cute chart predictions are better served on any of the 1000 chart forums, at least until you know what you,re talking about. The best chart people on the planet have stated they don't have a clue 6 months out and you're making 2 year predictions. |
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greendrake ll |
#46 | |||
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Posts: 951 11/14/2008 23:13 |
Don't know about the chart people or any of that stuff BUT there was a rather lengthly write up in the local paper today about a speech given last night
by a very well known economist to a group of over 200 business people.His prediction for 2009 follows "2009 is going to be a rough year for many
especially the 2nd half.But as bad as the 2nd half is going to be,the first half of the year is going to be really,really horrific!!"
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tim simbari |
#47 | |||
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Posts: 270 11/15/2008 17:52 |
Well There's no doubt that things have declined at breakneck speed, especially since Septemper. There's an "otherworldly" level to the fear
and worry and frankly that makes it very hard to predict anything at all especially when global markets are going through this institutional deleveraging which
means fundemantals are meaningless until it's over. The irrational part of it is that markets have not factored in a recession they've factored in an
astroid destroying the planet.
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Chartist1 |
#48 | |||
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Posts: 154 11/15/2008 19:17 |
"The irrational part of it is that markets have not factored in a recession they've factored in an astroid destroying the planet"
Good stuff Tim.....There's a saying when everyone's betting on the end of the world, take the other side, what have you got to lose? As someone else said, this is all about the deleveraging of the economy....Folks with money are going to pick up some sweet bargains in all manners of assets. |
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Chartist1 |
#49 | |||
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Posts: 155 11/15/2008 19:26 |
I had four items listed for sale on this site: 1 was dirt cheap, two were a little high, and one was fair value. These were not cheap items, nothing under
$500.....I had some nibbles. But I got the feeling that if your'e not willing to make a huge price concession, it wasn't gonna move....So, I took all
the items off the market.
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pcg |
#50 | |||
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Posts: 1812 11/15/2008 19:50 Admin |
Yup, the bottom-feeders are out. But at this point in the economic cycle, they're left waiting because most of the folks who hold the better material can
afford to keep holding it.
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Chartist1 |
#51 | |||
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Posts: 159 11/20/2008 15:18 |
First test of critical chart support occurred today at S&P 776.....this will give way, probably next week.....Deflationary times ahead.....Collectible cane
will hit the market in greater numbers attracting lower bids.
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bdcanefly |
#52 | |||
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Posts: 843 11/20/2008 17:56 |
Lets put it this way.
Prices will fall as people income falls. Less money to spend, less money to buy. I do not care what it was worth at one time. It is only worth what someone will pay for it. As we all see,many cannot buy at all. I am very lucky at this time as our househould income has not come down, But that does not mean it won't. As soon as my project are done I will be buying more rods. I hope that the rods I want, have come down in price.
BDC
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David Dornblaser |
#53 | |||
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Posts: 207 11/20/2008 18:46 |
I agree this is the time to put an end to this thread. I pulled my earlier post predicting hard times ahead. I think that everyone realizes that we are
entering exceptional times, many will suffer. I, for one, will receive no pleasure at folks being forced to liquidate all or part of their collections for
necessity. I think that rather than focus on the negative we should focus on the positive, that which is a common thread through all of our lives: the pleasure
of being on a stream with a cane rod. In these uncertain times, the one thing that I can be certain of is that fishing in WI & MI with a cane rod will
continue to be one of the most enjoyable and relaxing things in my life.
- David www.UpperMidwestFlyFishing.com - fly fishing in the Upper Midwest. Spring Creeks to Smallies to Steelhead.
Last Edited By: David Dornblaser 11/20/2008 18:48.
Edited 1 time.
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HERMES2069 |
deflation | #54 | ||
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Posts: 454 11/20/2008 19:40 |
I was dreading DEFLATION. Oye!
Phil |
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pcg |
inflation! | #55 | ||
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Posts: 1837 11/20/2008 19:59 Admin |
Wait a year & we'll back into inflation. No kidding.
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HERMES2069 |
Archbishop Desmomd TuTu | #56 | ||
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Posts: 455 11/20/2008 20:09 |
All,
I was in attendance at the speech by Archbishop Tu Tu at the Green Build Int. Conf.. His Message: We are embarking on new times. The world is thanking us. Our higher Authority is thanking us. He said we are "Crazy, Crazy People". We are.... Go on It' a new world. Phil |
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freestoner |
#57 | |||
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Posts: 563 11/20/2008 20:56 |
When is deflation going to hit the rental market, is what many of us are asking...that's been a relevant question for some time, actually.
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Chartist1 |
#58 | |||
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Posts: 167 12/27/2008 17:08 |
hyperinflation is out there and coming in about 2 years......Right now, the banks that received the TARP funds aren't lending, they used the money to fix
their balance sheets.....I know of a guy who settled a credit card balance for 15 cents on the dollar at bank of america.....
try to find museum quality rods/reels at great prices.......if you can't find them, buy gold. |
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pcg |
#59 | |||
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Posts: 1931 12/27/2008 17:56 Admin |
Chartist, good advice. But few will pay attention.
Over the last 12 months, stocks etc have dropped 45-50% in value. Ouch. Gold is actually up a couple percentage points. As we move into the new year there'll be 12-18 months of apparent deflation, then inflation will kick in. Gold will jump. But in-between, many will believe that stocks have hit a bottom & will be back in equities that steadily lose value. |
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tim simbari |
#60 | |||
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Posts: 293 12/28/2008 19:21 |
Chartist1 wrote: Technical advise, economic advise, what's next....home dentistry? |
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- Members Corner
- Forum Announcements
- Collecting Bamboo Fly Rods
- Fishing Bamboo Fly Rods
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- Book Talk
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